US voters said nup to Trump
Australian Financial Review | November 10, 2022
There was no red wave because enough Americans still preferred boring Democrats over disruptive MAGA Republicans.
Over the past month, many of us in the Democratic Party were concerned that this week’s result would be far worse for Democrats. That uneasiness was for good reason.
Traditionally, in midterm elections the president’s party gets shellacked. Only once this century did a president’s party evade significant losses in the House of Representatives during a midterm election. That was in 2002, under George W. Bush, and was largely attributable to 9/11 and a rally-around-the-flag effect.
Otherwise, House losses in modern times have equated to the opposition party flipping, on average, 27 of the president’s party’s House seats.
While Republicans are still poised to win a majority in the House, the margin looks to be much less significant than previously expected. Just a few weeks ago, the likely next speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, predicted that the GOP could pick up upwards of 63 seats in the House. They’re ultimately going to have a 10- to 15-seat majority, which can make life difficult for the speaker as he tries to corral his caucus.
Throughout the northern summer and autumn, the media portrayed this election as being a standard referendum midterm, meaning the result would reflect how the broader electorate felt about President Joe Biden’s performance in office.
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