Corruption is the sleeper issue of the midterms – and the Democrats’ message is landing with Republicans

Days from the U.S. midterm elections, the Bondi Partners U.S. Pulse finds the Democrats’ closing argument – that corruption in Washington is costing families money – has wider support than any other cost-of-living message of the campaign.

The President’s own voters also want the war ended and data centers reined in. Only immigration still holds his base, and it is the one message the country ranks last.

• Cracking down on corruption in Washington to lower the cost of living is the top priority of Americans for the remaining two years of the Trump presidency: 83 percent agree, 65 percent strongly, 3 percent disagree. Republicans 83 percent, Democrats 89 percent, Independents 79 percent.
• Two-thirds of Republicans want foreign wars ended to bring fuel prices down (66 percent) and data centers regulated to lower electricity bills (68 percent) – the two positions the President has most firmly set himself against.
• Nearly half of Republicans (47 percent) and 44 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters want the tariffs removed to lower prices; among Republicans under 45, a 60 percent majority want tariffs removed.
• Reducing immigration to make housing affordable is the only one of six priorities tested that fails to win a majority (46 percent agree, 26 percent disagree). It is the one item on which Republicans (75 percent) and Democrats (23 percent) point in opposite directions.

The Bondi Partners U.S. Pulse – a nationally representative poll of 2,000 U.S. adults delivered by YouGov – asked Americans how much they agree or disagree that each of the following should be a top priority for the country in the two years after the midterm elections:

• “Cracking down on corruption in Washington to lower the cost of living for families”
• “Ending foreign wars to bring fuel prices down”
• “Regulating data centers to lower electricity bills”
• “Removing tariffs to lower the price of goods”
• “Raising taxes on the wealthy to pay for cost-of-living relief”
• “Reducing immigration to make housing more affordable”

The poll was formulated to test which campaign messages are landing, rather than which policies people like in the abstract. Tying every cause and effect statement to cost of living – which is well-recognized as the main concern for voters – helps to keep a balanced spread across the statements.

It’s balanced across the parties. Ending foreign wars (Trump’s 2024 message) and reducing immigration to ease housing costs are Republican arguments. Removing tariffs, taxing the wealthy and corruption are Democratic arguments. Data centers sits across both.

The poll language uses no party cues: no names, no slogans, and “the country” rather than “Congress and the President”, while still broadly matching the argument put forward by the campaign messaging, e.g. Republicans on immigration or Democrats on corruption.

Headline findings

Corruption is the issue that fires up American voters.

• 83 percent of Americans agree that cracking down on corruption in Washington to lower the cost of living for families should be a top priority, and 65 percent agree strongly – more than on any other item. Only 3 percent disagree.
• Republicans 83 / 3 (net +80)
  Democrats 89 / 3 (net +86)
  Independents 79 / 4 (net +76)
  Trump’s 2024 voters 85 / 3 (net +82)
• It is the top-ranked item among Republicans, Independents, Trump voters, over-65s (89 percent agree, 77 percent strongly), men, white voters and every U.S. region.
• The question did not name a party or a President. The Democrats have spent the campaign attaching the word corruption to the cost of living; asked whether that is what the next two years should be about, Republicans say yes at the same rate as everyone else.

The President is on the wrong side of his own voters on the war and on data centers.

• Ending foreign wars to bring fuel prices down: 77 percent of Americans agree (56 percent strongly), 6 percent disagree.
  Republicans 66 / 11 (net +54)
  Democrats 91 / 3 (net +88)
  Independents 73 / 4 (net +69)
  Trump voters 65 / 12 (net +53)
• Regulating data centers to lower electricity bills: 73 percent agree, 6 percent disagree.
  Republicans 68 / 10 (net +59)
  Democrats 84 / 4 (net +81)
  Independents 66 / 6 (net +60)
  Trump voters 65 / 11 (net +54)
• Fewer than one in eight Republicans disagrees with either priority. The Republican candidates who have called for the war to end and campaigned against data centers were following their voters.

Tariffs split the Republican base by age.

• Removing tariffs to lower the price of goods: 68 percent of Americans agree, 12 percent disagree.
  Republicans 47 / 26 (net +20)
  Democrats 91 / 2 (net +88)
  Independents 67 / 8 (net +60)
  Trump’s 2024 voters 44 / 30 (net +14)
• Most younger Republicans want tariffs removed, while older Republicans are split:
  Republicans under 45 are 60 / 13 (net +47)
  Republicans 45 and over 39 / 34 (net +5).

Immigration is the only message that fails to get a majority – and the only one that still binds the base to the President.

• Reducing immigration to make housing more affordable: 46 percent agree, 26 percent disagree, 22 percent neither. The lowest agreement and highest disagreement of the six priorities tested.
  Republicans 75 / 6 (net +69)
  Democrats 23 / 48 (net −25)
  Independents 41 / 21 (net +20)
  Trump voters 80 / 5 (net +75) (55 percent strongly)
  Hispanic Americans 38 / 30 (net +8).

Taxing the wealthy carries the country, not the Republicans.

• Raising taxes on the wealthy to pay for cost-of-living relief: 60 percent agree, 18 percent disagree.
• Republicans 39 / 36 (net +3)
  Democrats 84 / 6 (net +78)
  Independents 56 / 14 (net +42)

Weighted percentages; “agree” and “disagree” combine the strongly and somewhat boxes, and the balance is “neither” or “don’t know”. Party groups use leaned identification. Margins of error: all adults ±2.6, Republicans ±4.1, Democrats ±4.2, Independents ±6.2 points.

Republicans and the President’s agenda

Republicans under 45 want the tariffs removed by 60 / 13 (net +47), while Republicans 45 and over are split on the issue 39 / 34 (net +5). Twice as many young Republicans support raising taxes on the wealthy as oppose it, while older Republicans oppose it, on net.

On corruption, the war and data centers there is no split to speak of: every Republican sub-group tested shows majority support for ending foreign wars (lowest 62 percent), regulating data centers (lowest 64 percent), and cracking down on corruption (lowest 72 percent).

Republicans under 45 n = 268 (about ±7 points); Republicans 45 and over n = 472 (±5).

Men, women, race and education

White voters divide by education more than by gender. College-educated white women align strongly with Democratic priorities – ending the war 84 / 3 (net +80), removing tariffs 72 / 9 (net +63), data centers 78 / 3 (net +76) – and are split on immigration 38 / 34 (net +4).

In contrast, white men and women without a degree agree on immigration at 55 percent and 54 percent. College-educated white men are the strongest group in the poll on corruption: 91 / 3 (net +87), 73 percent strongly.

White men, no degree n = 351 (about ±6 points); White men, degree n = 249 (about ±7 points); White women, no degree n = 388 (about ±6 points); White women, degree n = 265 (about ±6 points).

Hispanic Americans are among the most mobilized groups on the cost-of-living items – ending the war 80 percent, a corruption crackdown 80 percent, data centers 75 percent, removing tariffs 72 percent – and among the least persuaded by the immigration message, 38 / 30 (net +8).

White n = 1,253 (about ±3 points); Black n = 256 (about ±8 points); Hispanic n = 305 (about ±8 points).

The battleground states

The 14 battleground states whose Senate race the Cook Political Report rated anything other than Solid on 20 October – the week the U.S. Pulse poll was in the field – track the nation on every item. Those 14 states are: Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Alaska, New Hampshire, Minnesota, South Carolina, Mississippi and Nebraska (n = 610, about ±5 points).

Republicans in those 14 states are:

• 44 / 28 (net +17) on removing tariffs
• 69 / 15 (net +54) on ending the war
• 70 / 10 (net +60) on data centers

Texas (n = 239) runs hotter on immigration, 49 / 21 (net +27), and data centers, 75 / 4 (net +70).

The Rust Belt states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin pooled are 87 / 3 (net +84) on corruption and 76 / 6 (net +70) on data centers.

Senate battleground pool ±5 points; Texas ±8; Rust Belt pool (n = 226) ±8; battleground Republicans (n = 239) ±7. Individual states other than Texas are too small to quote on their own.

What this means for Tuesday – and after

The poll went into the field eight days before the election, with Democrats leading the generic ballot by eight points in the final-week Marist poll and ten points in CNN, the President’s approval at a record-low 31 percent in Reuters/Ipsos, and the Cook Political Report rating Democrats favored outright in the 218 seats needed for a majority after moving 19 more seats their way on 23 October.

The Senate is 53 to 47, with Democrats needing a net gain of four, Cook rating seven races as toss-ups – Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Maine and Alaska – and Republican strategists describing Iowa, Ohio and Alaska as the “red wall” they must hold.

The Democrats have made corruption their closing argument, and specifically corruption as a cost-of-living issue. Georgia’s Jon Ossoff tells rallies the President and his allies “made you pay more for everything” while “the crook president and his crook family raked in billions”; North Carolina’s Roy Cooper is airing an ad that says “Washington politicians get rich while you get hurt. Corporations make huge profits while your costs go up”; Hakeem Jeffries has promised to “hold the crooks accountable beginning on Day One”.

The New York Times describes the Democrats’ final weeks as making the case that “Republican corruption in Washington is costing Americans money”, and an Axios review counted 47 Democratic ads attacking corruption or a broken Washington in 30 days, against 19 in 2024. Gallup finds a record 89 percent of Americans say government corruption is widespread; the FT/Focaldata poll has 69 percent of registered voters concerned about corruption and self-dealing in the administration, including almost half of the President’s 2024 voters. This poll shows how far that message has travelled: the Democrats’ argument is now the most widely shared priority in American politics, and Republican voters hold it as strongly as Democrats do.

Republican candidates have been breaking with the President on precisely the items the poll tests – Michigan’s Mike Rogers called for an end to the war and for an end to the tariff fight with Canada, Maine’s Susan Collins and New Hampshire’s John Sununu attacked the trade war until the President cut a range of Canadian tariffs on 23 October, Iowa’s Ashley Hinson and Ohio’s Jon Husted called for a quick end to the war, and candidates in both parties are running against data centers while the President tells Ohio “We want them”. The poll says those breaks are safe with the base: two-thirds of Republicans are with them on the war and on data centers, and a plurality on tariffs. The one place Republican voters still want their candidates standing with the President is the border.

For a Democratic House, the corruption number is both mandate and promise. Hakeem Jeffries has pledged hearings “beginning on Day One”; Robert Garcia, in line to chair Oversight, says “the single biggest part of our work is going to be focused on the Trump crime family” and that his job is to “build the case and to provide the evidence” for impeachment; the Speaker says impeachment is “guaranteed, probably on the first day” if Democrats win.

The U.S. Pulse poll results suggest the country will give the Democrats room to investigate, because voters want a corruption crackdown as cost-of-living relief and Republicans want it too. Whether that support extends to impeachment is less clear. Former White House Chief of Staff under President Obama, Rahm Emanuel, warns a third impeachment by Democrats would “prove all Washington is what the American people think” and Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, fighting to win back Ohio, says he “would not support an impeachment of Trump”.

The items where Republican and Democratic voters agree – the war, data centers and, among younger Republicans, tariffs – may be where a Democratic majority can force votes that split the other side.

Commentary

Quotes attributable to Joe Hockey, President and Founding Partner, Bondi Partners:

“The Democrats’ closing argument is that corruption in Washington is costing families money. More than eight in ten Americans agree with them – and so do more than eight in ten Republicans. A week from the election, that is the most widely shared view in American politics, and it is the Democrats who own it.”

“On data centers, the President is on the wrong side of his own voters. Two-thirds of Republicans want data centers regulated to bring power bills down. The Republican candidates who broke with him were reading their base correctly.”

“Immigration is the only plank of the President’s agenda that still holds the Republican base together, and it is the only one of the six priorities that fails to win a majority of Americans.”

Quotes attributable to Mick Mulvaney, Senior Adviser to Bondi Partners and former acting Chief of Staff during the first Trump presidency:

“Democrats have promised hearings on day one, and this suggests voters may give them room to do it, because when voters see corruption as a cost-of-living issue, support for a crackdown crosses party lines.”

“The trap is impeachment. The moment oversight turns into partisan politics or a third impeachment, it stops looking like cleaning up Washington and starts looking like the same old swamp – and that will be the moment the Republicans in that eighty-three percent walk away.”

About the Bondi Partners U.S. Pulse

The Bondi Partners U.S. Pulse is a monthly polling series measuring American attitudes on issues of public policy that have direct implications for Australia and its relationship with the United States. It is the only poll that regularly tracks American attitudes to the issues that impact the Australia–U.S. relationship.

The U.S. Pulse is commissioned by Bondi Partners, the strategic advisory firm founded by former Australian Treasurer and Ambassador to the United States, Joe Hockey, who served as ambassador during the first Trump presidency.

Methodology

The Bondi Partners U.S. Pulse is conducted by YouGov. This wave surveyed 2,000 U.S. adults – double the usual sample – using YouGov’s online panel, weighted to be nationally representative of the U.S. adult population by age, gender, race, education, region and 2024 presidential vote. The overall margin of error is ±2.6 percentage points.

Fieldwork was conducted from 22 to 26 October 2026. Respondents were asked: “Thinking about the two years after the November midterm elections, how much do you agree or disagree that each of the following should be a top priority for the country?” The six items were randomized and are reported in order of national agreement; “agree” and “disagree” combine the strongly and somewhat responses. The items do not name a party or a President; attributions in this release are analysis. Party groups use leaned party identification. Sub-group margins of error are wider than the topline: about ±4 points for Republicans and Democrats, ±6 for Independents, ±5 for over-65s, ±7.5 for Hispanic respondents, ±5 for the pooled Senate battleground states and ±8 for Texas.

The U.S.–Australia Alliance Tracker was not fielded this wave.